You wouldn't steal George, would ya?
|Readers Letter 10/25/2004:
If Bush is "re-elected" he will have to change his name to George "Deiboldya" Bush. The consensus of dozens of polls taken over the last week have "Deiboldya" stuck on 48%. Not good news. Not Good news at all for the 700 clubbers and other Christian Zionists hoping that "Deiboldya" will have another four years to bring about the Rapture and Armegeddon.
Why ? Since 1956 no challenger has garnered additional support beyond his final popular vote total estimate as gauged by Gallup. This year I exclude Gallup from calculations because they are using "bizarre" voter id samples designed to create the illusion of a large Bush lead.. This organisation , until fairly recently, had a remarkable record of accuracy. Ownership has changed and the poll is now sadly a gigantic waste of ink and trees sacrificed to present it's results.
Earlier data is still of academic and research value. Conclusion: Incumbents never make surges from their last horse race number. Currently Deiboldya ,as mentioned, is stuck on 48%. Examples: 1956 Eisenhower's final horserace projection 59.5% , his actual vote total 57.8% 1964: Johnson's final horse race projection 64% , his actual share of the vote 61.3% In 1972 Nixon's final horse race projection tally 62% , his actual vote total 61.8% In 1976 Ford's final horse race projection number 49% ,his % share of the vote 48.1% In 1980, Carter's final horse projection numer 44% , his real % of the vote 41%. In 1984 Reagan final horse race projection tally 59% , his real share of the popular vote 59.2% In 1996 Clinton's final horse race number 52% , his actual share of the vote ,49.2% The alleged miracle comeback of incumbent Harry Truman can not be included in this study because Gallup issued it's "final" result 2 weeks before the election.
The conclusion. On average the incumbent receives approximately 1.5% less than his final vote tally projection.. There a still a few days left before the "Final Vote Tally" is issued (reached by a consensus poll of all polls) .If he remains at 48% , Deiboldya will receive no greater than 48% of the popular vote and possibly as small as 45% share of the vote. Given the registration spikes in democrat friendly precincts and demographics, particularly the 18-24 year old set, and the great anti -Bush furor unleashed by the Iraq War and job losses incurred in the Bush years , the logical extrapolition is that Bush should land in the lower end of this 3% range.
This argues for a Final Result : Kerry 53% Bush 46% and Nader and other Third parties a combined 1%. A far Cry from the current polls showing Bush 48% Kerry 46%, Nader 1%. 120 million people are projected to show up this year , an increase of 12 million from 2000. A 7 point victory would constitite a popular vote plurality for Kerry of 8.4 million votes. Not a landslide , but a comfortable victory for the challenger. Unless lightening strikes in a bottle (an Israeli strike on Iran, terrorist attack) Bush has only one way to victory: massive vote fraud by Bushites stealing millions of votes from E-Voting sysyems now in use in 40 states.
You wouldn't steal George, would ya? Thou shall not steal? or Covet Thy Neigbor's oil!
See also: How To Rig An Election In The United States
What Really Happened