ECONOMY | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED


ECONOMY

Jan 31 09:41

What About the Debt? Trump's SOTU Ignores a $20 Trillion Time Bomb

President Donald Trump skipped that box in his first official State of the Union address. He did not once utter the words "debt" or "entitlement." The only mention of "deficit" came in reference to America's supposed "infrastructure deficit"—in other words, it came in a call for even more government spending. Trump did reference the "sequester," a colloquial name for the 2013 budget act instituting limited cuts in discretionary spending, but only long enough to call it "dangerous" and to ask for Congress to repeal it so more tax money can be shoveled into the Pentagon.

Jan 31 09:00

What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings?

Or what the averages are hiding.

Jan 31 08:17

Poland Signs into Law Anti-Sunday Shopping Legislation, Aims to Give Families More Time Together

New legislation hoping to help Polish families to spend more time together and to give shop workers at least one day’s rest has been signed into law by President Duda, and will come into force in March.

The legislation, worked out by the conservative government and the Solidarity trade union, is expected to draw protests from large Western supermarket chains that are the main target of the law. A large part of their profit is earned on weekends.

Jan 31 07:56

A Market Bear’s Favorite Chart

Jan 31 07:37

Tax Cut Hangover

Jan 31 06:14

Is The Economy Partying Like It’s 1999?

Jan 31 05:22

Panic Grips U.S. Financial Markets As The Dow Falls 362 Points – Worst Drop In More Than A Year

It isn’t going to be a surprise when U.S. stock prices fall 50, 60 or 70 percent from where they are today.  The only real surprise is that it took this long for it to happen. 

Jan 30 14:43

USTreasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire

Jan 30 13:12

Dow drops 400 points

The calm on Wall Street has finally been punctured by a rare bout of selling.
The Dow dropped about 400 points, or 1.4%, on Tuesday. It's on track for its worst percentage loss since May. The Dow has not lost more than 373 points since the November 2016 election.

Although stocks are less than 2% from all-time highs, back-to-back declines have been uncommon of late. The index has lost nearly 600 points so far this week.

The S&P 500 could end its record streak without consecutive declines of 0.5%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Jan 30 12:13

They Are Getting Ready To Pull The Plug On The Economy

Toys R Us won't release its holiday sales data. US savings has hit a crisis low. 6 traders were just arrested for gold manipulation. NAFTA talks are breaking down, most likely NAFTA will be cancelled.

Jan 30 10:59

Get Ready For Another Housing Crash...

Jan 30 08:54

Major Russian Bank CEO Dire Warning: Anti-Russian Sanctions Mean War, US Should Remove Ambassador from Moscow

The US has threatened a new round of anti-Russian sanctions, scheduled to be announced today, Jan. 29. This new round is directed against Russian big business, banks, the rich and ex-oligarchs. Some of these reside in Russia and others in London, EU and US.

Russians at large don’t trust the class of the rich and oligarchs, believing their loyalties lie with the West, where their money is stashed away. To a degree this is correct. However, more and more proof is arriving daily that the opposite may be true in many cases. Some examples are striking and jaw-dropping.

Jan 30 08:54

ON BANKS REFUSING CASH WITHDRAWALS

I have received enough calls and emails on this within the last few weeks to A.) cause concern and B.) merit a post.

People are having difficulty withdrawing cash from banks. I just received the SECOND call on this from California this week. The question is, do banks have the right to deny you cash withdrawals?

The answer is NO. They do not. And both of the men I have heard from in California were obviously being bee-essed by their bank. The bank couldn’t cite statute, and then started haggling over the amount of cash withdrawals they would allow. That’s your dead give-away. If there were ANY statute or actual rule, the bank wouldn’t set up a conference call and then start haggling. You don’t haggle over laws and rules.

Jan 30 08:53

Commonwealth Bank involved in rigging key market interest rate, ASIC alleges

Commonwealth Bank has become the latest bank embroiled in a rate rigging scandal, just a day after appointing a new chief executive.

Jan 29 21:00

US economy better than ever, unemployment nearing record low: Donald Trump

United States President Donald Trump on Monday claimed that the country's economy was "better than it has been in many decades".

Taking to Twitter, the US President wrote, "Our economy is better than it has been in many decades. Businesses are coming back to America like never before."

He further claimed that unemployment was nearing "record lows".

Jan 29 14:51

Alaska Officially in Recession as 1 in 7 NOW ON FOOD STAMPS! Alarming Numbers!

The people of Alaska are not doing well. But as discussed here in this video, this is just a small piece of the overall picture. All dominoes will fall.

Jan 29 13:41

Um, Is the US Treasury “Yield Curve” Steepening or Flattening?

And how would the housing market digest these kinds of mortgage rates?

Jan 29 12:47

US Dollar Weakens Against Commodities and Other Currencies

By Jeff Paul

The US Dollar is quickly weakening compared to commodities, cryptocurrencies and other national currencies. Is it a normal cycle? Or is it something more serious this time?...

Jan 29 11:12

US Ambassador Urges Russia To React "Calmly" To "Corrupt Oligarchs" List Due Monday

The US Ambassador to Russia urged the Kremlin to react "calmly" to the U.S. Treasury Department's list of "corrupt oligarchs" due Monday. The list is designed to "name and shame" elite Russians into thinking twice before engaging in business with Putin's government. It will be up to Congress to decide whether the list should be published.

"I urge to take this report, based on its real and not a contrived essence and without emotions, because relations between our countries are far from being exhausted by this one legal act, and I was reminded about it in Washington, where I was two weeks ago," - US Ambassador John Huntsman via -newsru (translated)

Webmaster's Commentary: 

This is the most completely ham-fistedly, pig-headedly stupid remark Huntsman could have possibly made, looking at the number of sanctions placed upon Russia, primarily as punishing it for what it did not do (i.e., allegedly "annexing" Crimea from Ukraine), a lie that every rational person sees as a lie, regarding the 2014 putsch in Kiev; the throwing the duly elected President Yanukovich under the proverbial bus; and crookedly installing Poroshenko as his successor.

And BTW, Ambassador Huntsman, the US government was heavily involved in this overthrow, which President Obama personally admitted:

President Obama admits that a US Brokered a deal in Support of Regime Change in Kiev.

When Crimea understood that representative government in Kiev no longer existed, they passed two referendums, one to ask its people if they wanted to stay with Ukraine, post-Coup, or join the Russian Federation. There was a unanimous vote by the Crimean people to petition the Russian Federation for membership, which Russia later granted.

Peaceful self-determination is a value enshrined in the UN charter, but Ukraine and the US vengefully spat all over that, in their threatening stance toward Russia, the sanctions against it being "punishment" for something Russia absolutely did not do.

So I have an observation for Ambassador Huntsman; sir, in the words of my late grandmother, "The horse is already out of the barn" on this issue, and both Putin and Xi are a zillion chess moves away from those of the US government.

And why?!? Both Russia and China are rapidly moving away from the US dollar in their trading, and so are other countries as well.

Putin Orders End to US dollar trade in Russian Seaports
Non-Dollar Trading Is Killing the Petrodollar — And the Foundation of U.S.-Saudi Policy in the Middle East

The US Dollar may be at risk as the global reserve currency

23 countries now abandoning the US dollar

Challenging the dollar: China and Russia plan from petroyuan to gold

Russia and China have the means to absolutely crucify the US dollar into absolute non-existence, and for the following reasons:

1. The US dollar, at this point, has no intrinsic value: it is simply a worthless piece of paper, with no tangible asset or assets backing it whatsoever.

2. By these actions by Russia and China, the Bretton-Woods Accord, which acknowledged the US dollar as the primary global currency in 1944, has ceased to exist.

Unfortunately, it appears that the US government will attempt to crush these new economic developments though a number of massive wars.

Washington plans to nuke Russia and China

So Ambassador Huntsman, if you are suddenly recalled from Russia to the US for "consultations", you now cannot say, with a straight face, that you did not know why.

Jan 29 09:43

Is Everyone Now Bullish in Stocks?

Jan 29 08:16

"It Just Gets Worse And Worse": A Record 32% Of Used Car Trade-Ins Are Underwater

We have frequently written about the unsustainable trends in new car sales in the United States created by the combination of lower rates, easing underwriting standards and voracious demand for new securitizations by wall street and pension funds that will do just about anything for an extra 20bps of yield.

This week we find that according to the latest Edmunds' data, many of the same problems also afflict the used auto market. The most startling takeaway from the report is that the percentage of used cars being traded in with negative equity values - which means that dealers lenders are willing to accept an immediate loss for new transactions - continues to rise and currently stands at an all-time high 32.4%, up from under 20% in 2009. Moreover, the average balance of the negative equity also continues to rise and stood at a record $5,130 last year, up over a quarter from $4,075 a decade earlier.

Jan 29 08:10

‘Step Up the Pressure’: German Workers to Stage More 24-Hour Strikes

After late-night labor talks in Germany between powerful unions and industrial manufacturers failed to reach an accord, the country’s largest trade union has announced a series of rolling 24-hour strikes, expected to slow production amid an upsurge in the economy.

Jan 29 07:30

China and the United States are heading towards a trade war

One of the pillars of President Trump’s election campaign was fixing America’s yawning trade deficit with China. Indeed, he went so far as to call trade with Beijing as China’s “rape” of the US economy. Trump also railed against the “theft” of coveted manufacturing jobs from the American heartland. So it seemed like a trade war was an eventuality.

However, Trump didn’t address the trade imbalance with China in his first year in office. The deficit with China came in at a hefty $344 billion last year. That was only a smidge below President Obama’s last year in office and an eye-watering 52% above the 2009 trade deficit.

Jan 29 07:30

Chris Cole: "The Coming Crash Will Be Like 1987...But Worse"

In this week's MacroVoices podcast, host Erik Townsend interviews Chris Cole of Artemis Capital Management, who famously earned a profile in the New York Times last year after publishing an influential paper about the looming surge in volatility that looks set to upend eight years of relatively sleepy prosperity in financial markets...

In his paper, Cole famously compared financial markets to the ouroboros - the Greek symbol depicting a snake eating itself, which Cole leverages as a metaphor for the contemporary state of financial markets...

Jan 29 07:29

SOTU 2018 Preview - Trump Will Kickstart The End of Chimerica; What This Means For Markets

While the State of the Union address is rarely if ever an FX market-moving event, in light of recent comments by both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and with global trade suddenly on everyone's radar, if there is one market-sensitive topic that may get a kick start on January 31, it is US trade relations with China.

Jan 29 07:26

Internet erupts over black unemployment after Trump’s unlikely feud with rapper Jay-Z

Donald Trump has lashed out at Jay-Z’s recent remarks about him, telling the rapper that black unemployment has actually dropped under his presidency. Twitter was divided over whether Trump had anything to do with the fall.

“Somebody please inform Jay-Z that because of my policies, Black Unemployment has just been reported to be at the LOWEST RATE EVER RECORDED!” Trump tweeted on Sunday.

Jan 29 07:24

Texas Set For Another Oil Boom

Texas is set for another oil boom, with production this year expected to hit a record high. That’s according to Karr Ingham, the oil economist who created the Texas Petro Index — a composite based on several upstream indicators.

The December 2017 reading of the index was 188.8, up from 151.2 in December 2016. This is still far below the peak of 314.2, which was reached in November 2014, a few months after the price slide began, but it’s much better than 2016 readings. In fact, the TPI has been rising for 13 months in a row.

Jan 29 06:58

Bitcoin price CRASH 'BLOODBATH': Cryptocurrency could drop 80% as tether criticism rises

Tether is owned by a trading company named Bitfinex which has recently come under scrutiny by a blogger identifying themselves as Bitfinex’d.

The user has detailed in posts, tweets and YouTube videos that tether has been plucked from thin air to boost the value of bitcoin.

Investor worries have stemmed from the fact Bitfinex has previously declared that all of its coins are backed by real US dollar deposits, giving it a one to one value.

However, market concerns have been heightened following the series of blog posts from Bitfinex’d that, if true, could send bitcoin crashing if it is discovered its value has been artificially bumped up.

Jan 29 06:53

No Taxpayers’ Nickel is Spared in Washington’s Military Adventures Worldwide

At the beginning of 2017, the chief of US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) General Raymond Thomas while speaking in front of one of the Senate committees announced that:
We operate and fight in every corner of the world. Rather than a mere ‘break-glass-in-case-of-war’ force, we are now proactively engaged across the ‘battle space’ of the Geographic Combatant Commands… providing key integrating and enabling capabilities to support their campaigns and operations.
According the director of the Arms and Security Project at the Center for International Policy, William Hartung most Americans would be amazed to learn that US Special Operations Forces have been deployed to three quarters of the nations on the planet. Furthermore, according to this researcher there is little or no transparency as to what they are doing in these countries and whether their efforts are promoting security or provoking further tension and conflict.
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Jan 29 06:23

These Chart Signals Transports Are Late Cycle

Jan 29 05:36

Stock Market Setting Records In Levitation

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