Jeb Bush, and the predictable arc of presidential primaries | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED

Jeb Bush, and the predictable arc of presidential primaries

I don't know if Jeb Bush is a naturally optimistic fellow, although if you asked him he'd surely say he is (every candidate has to proclaim their optimism, particularly about America). But in recent weeks he's had some cause for concern. Not long ago, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a full 42 percent of Republicans saying they wouldn't consider voting for him. Bush is the "establishment" candidate at a time when the Tea Party still dominates the Republican base.

And Republicans seem unusually taken with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has all the correct positions for GOP primary voters, not to mention the glow that comes from being the Next Big Thing. After two elections in which older, familiar figures won the nomination then lost to Barack Obama, one might think the party is ready to nominate someone new.

But Bush may not have to worry. If the primaries go the way they usually do, he'll prevail.

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