Here's the 06z NHC (current forecast issued at 5am). I think it's on the hot side, but their job is evacuation, not damage prediction. The LOOP is my main concern at this stage. It's an important piece of infrastructure, and it is right in the bullseye. A 20 mile left or right shift, and 10 or 15 knots of wind speed means the difference between days and months of repair/recovery time. NHC track is Bad for the LOOP; some tracks to the east are better (not so good for NOLA, though). I'm sticking fairly close to my probabilities from a couple days ago, minus the Mexico and Tampa side trips: 30% Cat 3/4 landfall in LA, 30% cat 2 landfall in LA, 10% to Pensacola area, 20% farther west, 10% something goofy.