Nakhichevan: Corridor to the Next Round of Nagorno-Karabakh Combat | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED X-Frame-Options: DENY X-Frame-Options: SAMEORIGIN

Nakhichevan: Corridor to the Next Round of Nagorno-Karabakh Combat

Ever since the "end" of the latest forty-four day war between Turkish and Israeli-backed – and American-enabled – Azerbaijan and (at best vaguely) Russian-aligned Armenia, there’ve been a slew of policy-wonkish laments about the resultant "illiberal peace." That’s mainly a function of the Russia- and China-hysteria that passes for sound strategic judgment in the Emerald City on the Potomac, and Washington’s sour grapes that the (semi-) ceasefire was Moscow-brokered. Leaving aside for a moment the glaring hypocrisy – one needn’t wonders whether the US would’ve insisted on mediating combat raging 110 miles from its border (i.e. in Quebec, Canada or Monterey, Mexico) – the truth is the non-settlement of this latest Nagorno-Karabakh war hasn’t and won’t bring peace. Neither side is satisfied. The shooting never stopped – it still hasn’t, and is only likely to escalate.

This is a pause, a (not quite) lull, before the next round of fighting. Only, if I were a betting man, I’d say that the last round’s Azeri victors – far more wealthy and powerful, and with way more friends – are gonna go for a knockout blow when the bell next rings. When the punching starts, look for a reboot of the last bout’s crowd behavior: with Washington and Europe watching from the cheap seats, the Russian referee struggling to separate the low-blow-landing pugilists, and America’s ostensible allies – Turkey and Israel – acting as Azeri hype-men whilst weighting Baku’s gloves in the cheating corner. Then, when Yerevan gets knocked down again, American think-tankers and talking heads will again judge Moscow’s futile attempts to simultaneously shove Azerbaijan back in its corner, and offer Armenia a much-needed standing eight count.