Thought for the day
"Censorship is telling a man he can't have a steak just because a baby can't chew it." -- Mark Twain
One month ago we said that there is a reason why despite fundamentals, yields and newsflow screaming for lower prices, US equities simply refused to sell off: it was because investors know that the moment the Fed pivots dovish and capitulates on its tightening cycle (a move which could take place at any moment since it is as much political as it is financial), risk will explode limit up. And so, even though the US is sliding into a recession - or rather because the US is sliding into a recession - stocks remain sticky to the upside, and the VIX barely rises to crisis levels, waiting for the inevitable pivot.
Also one month ago, we got an advance look of what said pivot would look like courtesy of Australia, where bond yields tumbled and stocks soared after the country's top central banker opened the door on Thursday to slowing the bank's policy tightening after five rate increases in as many months, sparking a rally in bonds as markets scaled back bets on further aggressive moves.
In a speech on the policy outlook, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said further rate increases would be needed to contain inflation but the RBA Board was not on a pre-set path and was aware rates had already risen sharply: "We are conscious that there are lags in the operation of monetary policy and that interest rates have increased very quickly," said Lowe adding that he recognizes that "all else equal, the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises."
New week. New month. New quarter. New brains. New trades. New hope. Or “New balls, please” as they say at Wimbledon.
I don’t have the physical energy to play tennis with markets on an every-other-day basis, sending a detailed volley back at those who think the Fed is about to pivot because of one bad datapoint. That doesn’t mean the UK government can’t though – they just did exactly that on tax cuts.
All I can say is re-read what I have been saying all year about this being about more than just data; and I am told every goldbug, cryptonite, bond-bubble boy, equity enthusiast, derivative devil, property shill, and commodity compere is sitting on the side-lines --bleeding out-- and is waiting for the Fed to pivot in order to go all in on the next inflationary everything asset bubble.
Oil prices are extending their recent gains following headlines from Vienna that OPEC+ is considering a reduction in its production limit of as much as 2 million barrels a day.
However, the impact on actual production could be smaller since several members are already pumping far below their officials quotas, meaning they could automatically be in compliance with their new limit without having to curb production.
Nevertheless, it could still result in the cartel's largest reduction since the deep cuts agreed at the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and WTI surged up to $87 on the news...
Bangladesh's national power grid collapsed Tuesday afternoon, plunging 140 million people, or nearly everyone in the country, into darkness, AFP reported.
Reuters spoke with officials at the state-run Bangladesh Power Development Board, who said power transmission failed in the eastern part of the country and then tripped power plants nationwide, cutting off power to the capital, Dhaka, and other major metro areas.
Last week, the Bank of England intervened to prevent a gilt market crash by pledging to purchase long-dated bonds after the fallout from Prime Minister Liz Truss's proposed tax cuts. As collateral calls mounted, forcing pension funds to scramble for cash from investment managers to meet margin calls, Bloomberg revealed that the central bank's bond-buying program is much larger than previously announced.
Bloomberg reported Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng signed off on a £100 billion ($113 billion) bond-buying program for the BoE to soothe strains in the gilt market which has so far halted a sell-off that threatened to spiral out of control, sparking a liquidity crisis among pensions funds. Initially, the BoE pledged £65 billion ($69 billion) to buy long-dated gilts.
Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are soaring due to a shortage of vessels.
LNG shipping rates have been dramatically impacted by energy supply chain disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The LNG shipping sector is booming even more as rates near record highs following the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline system last week.
Bloomberg said Europe is "to replace Russian pipeline flows with liquefied natural gas from suppliers including in the US and Nigeria." Rejiggering supply chains for the energy-stricken continent means increasing demand for LNG carriers to source gas further away.
Shell booked an LNG carrier for $400k per day, likely the most expensive ever for the Atlantic basin. The Indian firm GAIL also secured an LNG shipment for about $360k per day.
Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin grilled several Democrats and Biden officials on camera for a Fox News segment that aired Monday afternoon.
California state officials are anticipating dry conditions in the state to continue after three years of drought that has plagued the state and severely impacted agriculture.
A video clip resurfaced Monday showing Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman (D), who at the time of the clip was mayor of Braddock, vandalizing a sign belonging to a local business back in 2010.
A Fox News panel descended into chaos on Monday when “The Five” cohost Jessica Tarlov tried to defend abortion access — and accidentally made the case for securing the southern border in the process.
The administration of the United States President Joe Biden has bypassed Congress to arm Ukraine with the next tranche of advanced American weapons worth $625 million.
Reporting on Monday, Reuters cited sources briefed on the new package as saying that Biden has ordered provision of the military aid for Ukraine, using his "Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA)."
This is not the first time that the US administration chooses to send weapons to Ukraine, using the PDA, which allows the president to authorize transfer of excess weapons from US stocks without congressional approval.
Made by Lockheed Martin Corp the HIMARS launchers' accuracy and longer range have allowed Ukraine to reduce Russia's artillery advantage.
The US has thus far pledged 16 HIMARS launchers to Ukraine using PDA.
The weapons, which are expected to be shipped to Ukraine in the coming days, include four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, munitions, mines, and mine-resistant vehicles, the sources noted.
Comedian and late-night host Bill Maher has some advice for Joe Biden: dump Kamala Harris.
During Maher’s most recent episode of Real Time, he makes a strong push to have Biden drop Harris from the 2024 Democratic ticket; he also doesn’t think Biden is going anywhere.
“Once you have that real estate, and you wake up in the White House, and your office is the Oval, I just don’t think you give it up,” Maher said. “It’s very hard to take away the nomination from the president, a sitting president.”
At the Democratic National Committee Women’s Leadership Forum last week, Vice President Kamala Harris raised a few eyebrows by claiming that Hurricane Ian aid would be given based on “equity.”
It is 99% accurate to say that Harris said Hurricane Ian aid would be based on “race.”
“So, we have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equity, understanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity, understanding that not everybody starts out at the same place,” she said.
No, Harris did not use the word “race.” She used the word “equity” in a racial context, essentially saying the same thing.
But Politifact rated the claim that Harris said aid to victims of Hurricane Ian would be based on race as “false.”
According to a report by CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, a loss in support from Black Americans could hand control of the Senate to the GOP.
“Look, they’re still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now but compare that to the final polling for 2020 President and 2018 Congress,” he stated. “In 2020 it was 84 percent, 85 percent in 2018.”
Alyssa Farah Griffin admitted on Monday that she had “worked together” with New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman — who just published a book about former President Donald Trump — while she was still working in the Trump White House.
Three major American medical institutions wrote a letter to the Biden administration this week urging it to go after major figures online who are promoting content that exposes some of the radical gender surgeries that are being offered at some places across the country.
The Japanese government is urging citizens to “take shelter immediately” after North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic missile.
Democratic Governor of California Gavin Newsom signed several bills last week with conflicting messages on freedom of speech and censorship.
UChicago United, a woke student organization at The University of Chicago, has announced their upcoming events for the academic year. One such event, “Race @ UChicago” has made it clear….no whites allowed. The event emphasizes that the event is “A BIPOC-ONLY space.”
Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs shocked Bloomberg News' hosts on Monday by speculating that the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines was a "US operation" or joint "US-Poland action."
The UK may enter a gas supply emergency due to shortages this winter, according to energy regulator Ofgem.
“Due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there is a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter 2022/23 in Great Britain. As a result, there is a possibility that GB could enter into a Gas Supply Emergency,” Ofgem said in a letter responding to a request by energy generator SSE that the regulator should address the risk of possible insolvencies. The letter was first made public by The Times.
A friend informed me today that her neighbor, a dairy farmer, is now forced to vaccinate her herd with an mRNA vaccine! (NSW) She complied and of the 200 head of cattle, 35 died instantly! I would sue the DPI The farmer said it is mandatory for all dairy farms to have their herd jabbed with this mRNA vaccine. Am not yet sure if that’s for NSW or across Australia, but will investigate immediately Implications? Dairy herd DNA is altered. Milk is altered and you CONSUME IT! Butter constitution, yoghurt, cheese is altered MEAT is altered Will chicken and other meats be next? Time to grow your own folks, and maybe develop herds that are private, none tagged, and never vaccinated. Time to set up a community farm association with member – farmers who are not part of the system, have herds – animals that are not jabbed or tagged so a community of private people can be consumers of organic produced livestock. It’s time to fend for ourselves as an organised community. Watch this space You might want to on send this message to warn your data base too.
Nearly half a million people have signed a petition demanding an early general election in the wake of Liz Truss’ tumultuous time in office.
Parliament will now debate the UK government and parliament petition after it passed the 100,000 thresholds on September 29 — the day Ms Truss vowed to stick by her controversial economic plan.
Four days on, and the signature total now stands at more than 470,000.
A debate date has yet to be decided.
On Monday, CNN revealed that its polling showed a significant drop in support for Democrats among black voters, which could cost Democrats the U.S. Senate.
Herschel Walker, a Republican running for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, slammed a report in the Left-wing Daily Beast that claimed Walker paid for a woman to have an abortion over a decade ago.
Los Angeles Rams linebackers Bobby Wagner and Takkarist McKinley tackled an animal rights activist who disrupted the team’s game against the San Francisco 49ers during Monday Night Football.
A Russian military train is reportedly transporting equipment for the nation’s nuclear weapons program to the frontlines of its war with Ukraine, sparking fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be preparing to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield amid his nation’s mounting losses in the war.
The leaders of Hungary, Austria and Serbia met Monday in Budapest to find solutions on how to stem the increasing number of migrants arriving in Europe, among them many young men from India.
The three leaders agreed to take joint action to control the new arrivals along the migration route that leads through Serbia.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer told reporters after the meeting that the joint action plan would include increased police cooperation along the borders as well as supporting Serbia when it comes to deporting migrants back to their home countries.
“We will directly support Serbia to carry out repatriations and not only support technical know-how, but also do everything possible that is necessary, and financially support them,” Nehammer said.
As Hurricane Ian decimated the Gulf Coast of Florida last week, a woman in Fort Myers swam to safety in 10-foot-deep waters with her three-month-old son swaddled in a blanket and secured in a car seat that she tucked inside a storage bin.
A former Cabinet minister sees Liz Truss as a ‘dead woman walking’ who has ‘lost all credibility’, according to a report.
In one of the most high-profile attacks from within her own party, the prime minister was warned her days at No 10 were numbered due to internal anger over her controversial economic plans.
A number of independent think-tanks and economists have accused the government of ‘gambling’ with the country’s finances by funding tax cuts with debt which it insists pay for itself in the long run through higher growth.
The cuts included a 1p reduction in the basic income tax rate and a 5p fall in the top rate of income tax, which would mean those earning more than £150,000 a year pay the same proportion as those on £50,000 a year.