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Should You Believe Faulty U.S. Crime Stats Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 - 04:45 AM

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

Americans can be forgiven for suffering from whiplash regarding law and order. 

In recent weeks the Biden administration and many news outlets, including USA Today and The Hill, have touted declines in violent crime statistics to argue that America is becoming a safer place. 

“Right now, with 2023 figures and early 2024, the trends are all pointing down, in a positive direction,” Jeff Asher, whose New Orleans-based AH Datalytics is developing his own “Real-Time Crime Index,” told RealClearInvestigations. 

Conservative outlets, including City Journal and the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, assert that minor declines in headline grabbers like homicides fail to capture what is really happening in the U.S. 

From 2017 to 2019, the U.S. had an average of 16,641 homicides a year. In 2021 and 2022, however, the country saw considerably more bloodshed, with an average of more than 22,000 annual homicides. Even if the 2023 number drops slightly, it will still represent a large increase over the recent past, before the pandemic and racial upheaval set in motion in 2020.

Many criminologists say this illlustrates one of the problems with the official numbers that are at the center of public debate: They give a distorted impression of true levels of crime. They note that crime stats have become notoriously incomplete in recent years. In some years many big cities did not report their numbers to the FBI, and there are such wide discrepancies in these tallies that the picture they provide has more blur than clarity.

Declining arrest rates and slowing police response times to 911 calls also help explain why polls show Americans believe crime is rising. The experts say the numbers only give some sense of lawbreaking, while most Americans – the vast majority of whom are not crime victims in a given year – are influenced by their largely media-driven perception of whether society feels orderly. 

“There are social media videos of people walking into a CVS and walking out with a shopping cart full and there seems to be no consequences – that’s part of the problem,” said Jay Town, former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama. “And then you have people arrested a dozen times and they’re out with no bail. There are no consequences, and thus there are more criminals in the street.”

Americans may fall back on such perceptions in part because the official reports are incomplete and rife with error. “I don’t think with any crime statistics we can ever be precise,” said Asher.

For decades, the traditional gold standard for criminologists was the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, annual compilations by the Bureau of stats provided to it by state and local law enforcement agencies. The FBI’s data, which currently show declines in several criminal categories, especially homicide, provide the basis for many of the stories arguing that, in terms of crime, the U.S. situation is improving.

But the FBI statistics aren't what they used to be, according to several criminologists who pointed to gaps in coverage and apparent errors. The problem began in 1988 when the bureau began to move toward a complex new system of reporting – the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). It promised to provide more comprehensive detail and enable authorities to pinpoint high-crime areas, criminals, and victims more accurately.

But the transition proved to be a herculean task, so much so that the FBI allowed departments to delay their full adherence to the program even after the feds doled out $120 million to agencies to assist with compliance. Still, in 2020, 2021 and 2022, either all or some of the biggest police forces in the U.S. -- New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles -- did not provide data.

There have also been problems with the data that was submitted, including the news in 2022 of major problems with the St. Louis Police Department data, and more recent revelations that figures for sexual crimes provided by the New Orleans Police Department were wrong.

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Scores of Israeli extremists in the occupied West Bank on Monday deliberately blocked relief trucks and destroyed aid destined for Gazans, in the latest in a series of attacks on aid convoys meant for desperate Palestinians in the war-hit enclave.

Video footage online showed the Israelis damaging boxes of food and throwing their contents on the road, as they sought to prevent aid from reaching Gaza.

Other footage showed spilled flour, rice and sugar on the ground, with trucks which had been visibly vandalised.

Four people, including a minor, were reportedly arrested, Israeli media reported.

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Tuesday's Democratic primary in Maryland is receiving major national attention, with a political action committee affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee contributing over US$4 million to its preferred candidate.

One of the top two candidates, Harry Dunn, a former capitol police officer who became a national figure after testifying following the 6 January 2021 attack, has been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and other prominent members of Congress, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and J Street. 

The other leading candidate, Sarah Elfreth, a member of the Maryland Senate, appears to have most of her endorsements from state officials. She has received over US$4 million in donations from the United Democracy Project.

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By Tyler Durden

In April's politburo meeting, the Chinese government's newfound focus on an oversupplied housing market was setting the stage to usher in new rescue policies to stabilize the economy. Weeks later, Bloomberg reported that the government was considering a plan for local governments to purchase millions of unsold homes to clear the excess supply. 

According to sources familiar with government discussions, the State Council requests feedback from various provinces and government entities on the home-buying plan.

Here's more color on the plan via Bloomberg: 

Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to two of the people. Many of the properties would then be converted into affordable housing.

Officials are still debating details of the plan and its feasibility, the people said, adding that it could take months to be finalized if China's leaders decide to go ahead. The housing ministry didn't respond to a request for comment.

In a note earlier, Goldman's Peter Sheren told clients that this news is nothing new and "has been speculated for 3-4 weeks." 

"This was one of the initial catalysts for the China Property Sector (GSXACNRE) to rally 21% in the past month," Sheren said. 

Housing prices in China have already fallen 25-30% from the peak and presented a dark cloud of economic uncertainty over China's financial system stability and continued risk for China's macroeconomic backdrop. If authorities do proceed with the plan, in a separate note, Goldman's Wang Yi believes "this new initiative might help to stabilize housing prices." 

Here's more commentary from Goldamn's Sheren this morning: 

"Wang Yi and team think if the coming measures focus on clearing "saleable inventory" (which includes both completed and uncompleted but unsold units, and that are less than 3 years of last year sales volume) or about 1/4 of the entire inventory backlog, property price stabilization might be achievable.

"Wang Yi estimates that there was Rmb30tn (US$4tn) in residential inventory by end-2023. If fully built-up, this will be about 10X what the market sold in 2023, or 1/4 of total housing stock as of end-2023. The required capital investment for completing such inventory could be 5X the construction CAPEX in 2023."

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Independent journalist Christina Urso, known professionally as Radix Verum, has reported that Bank of America abruptly terminated her bank account. Urso, who has been critical in her reporting on various issues including the FBI’s involvement in the Governor Whitmer kidnapping case, took to social media platform X to voice her concerns and frustrations.

According to Urso’s posts on X, the termination came without warning or clear explanation from the bank’s risk department. She claims that despite her long-standing relationship with Bank of America, access to her funds was denied and she was informed that a check for the account balance would be mailed to her without specifying when.

“So Bank of America has decided to ‘terminate’ their business relationship with me. Their ‘risk department’ made this determination for literally no reason. I have been with them for years. This is clearly because of my documentary and my critical reporting.

Webmaster addition: Imaging how much worse the abuse will be after we are all forced into a cashless society!

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In the US we heard both of these narratives heading into the recent congressional vote for billions more in monetary and logistical aid to Ukraine. Neocons and Democrats worked together to force the bill through with a percentage of true conservatives fighting to stop it. Those conservatives were attacked relentlessly by the media for “helping the Russians”, but the reality that no one in the mainstream wants to talk about is that Ukraine has already lost the war.

No amount of additional funding or arms shipments are going to help them, and it has nothing to do with conservatives questioning the validity of war spending. Anyone who has a basic understanding of military strategy knows that the key to winning is ALWAYS manpower first, logistics second. Not superior technology or armaments, not superior cash and certainly not popular support from foreign interests.

This is especially true in a war of attrition, and attrition is in fact the method being used by Russia to systematically whittle down Ukraine’s forces. However, the western media refuses to discuss what’s really happening and has been acting as a hype machine for Ukraine instead.

In September of 2022 I noted that the Russian pullback to the Donbas was not the “retreat” the western media made it out to be. Many establishment talking heads claimed that this was the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin and that Ukrainian forces would be taking Crimea in the near future.

I argued that Russia was likely trying to consolidate its position as western artillery and tanks flooded into Ukraine. I also suggested that Russia wanted to avoid urban combat in major cities while tens-of-thousands of seasoned mercenaries were rushing to the front from the US and Europe. I predicted that the Russian pullback was in preparation for surgical strikes on western Ukraine’s resources and grid infrastructure.

Claire's Observations:  One of the primary reasons that there are no peace negotiations, is that Bye-Di-Bye and his minions do NOT  want this campaign to end in catastrophic defeat, as did the campaign to leave Afghanistan, before November's election.  

Unfortunately, that is precisely what is about to happen, and they had better prepare for it now.  There is utterly no way to turn this around.  And if the Russian troops capture Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, how long before they breach Kiev's defenses?~?

I don't know what the Vegas odds are on this happening before the Memorial Day celebration in the US, but this being the Ides of May, I would be willing to bet that it won't take until the end of June for the Russians accomplish a Ukrainian capitulation in Kiev.

What an horrific waste of Russian and Ukrainian lives this has been; it looks like the US and NATO leadership has been snorting too much of that "hopum/changium" stuff to really understand the difference between reality and magical thinking here, and that .... has been deadly for far too many people.

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It was always right there.

Hiding in plain sight.

Right under our noses every time we played the simply game of Monopoly.

It’s almost like they were mocking us. ‘We have the monopoly on money and we don’t. Deal with it.’

This was brought to the attention of 31,000,000 people via Elon Musk’s post on X.

He simply stated how the Fed works.

They never run of money because they print however much they need.

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Between January and August of 2023, the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent more than 200,000 migrants from a controversial parole program to 45 municipalities across the country – here are the top 10:

Ft. Lauderdale
Los Angeles
New York
San Francisco

Article by Ethan Huff, republished with permission from Naturalnews.com

More than 80 percent of the migrants ended up in Florida with Miami receiving more than any other city at 91,821 of them.

Reports indicate that the program was enacted in October 2022, allowing a limited number of migrants who had not entered the U.S. illegally to fly directly into the country and land in one of 45 locales.

All qualifying migrants had to already have a sponsor in the U.S., and they all had to pass various vetting tests before being allowed entry.

The program was initially announced specifically for fleeing Venezuelans, but was later expanded to include Haitians, Nicaraguans and Cubans.

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Could a repeat of the 2020 COVID pandemic be on its way?…

Apparently, President Trump believes so.

In a just-released video, Trump warned that crazy left-wingers are trying to use the ‘bird flu’ to RIG November’s election.

But he promises, “We will not comply,” this time around, saying that he will cut off federal funding to any business, school, or airline that forces a mask mandate or vaccine.

Watch here:


Trump says Left wing lunatics are trying to use bird flu to rig the 2024 election

Tells everyone “we will not comply” and promises to cut off federal funding to any school, airline, or business that forces masks or vaccines on anyone pic.twitter.com/5wIn7wOSjM

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) May 14, 2024

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In Savage, Minnesota, a distressing incident unfolded at Hidden Valley Elementary School, where a nine-year-old girl was reportedly attacked by classmates for not being Muslim. Shawna Larson, the girl’s mother, shared that her daughter was assaulted during a school playground event, prompting an urgent discussion with the school’s principal and teacher. Despite the severity of her injuries, which included a black eye and multiple bruises, Larson was dissatisfied with the school’s handling of the situation, feeling that the response lacked the necessary rigor and consequences for the attackers.

The alleged assault led Larson to file a report with the Savage Police Department, highlighting a disturbing trend where she feels that racial and religious motives are overlooked in school settings. This incident has raised significant concerns about safety and the enforcement of disciplinary actions in educational environments. Larson was particularly troubled by the lack of immediate action against the students involved, noting that no suspensions or expulsions were issued, which might have served as a deterrent for future misconduct.

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The sun released another powerful stream of energized particles toward Earth early Tuesday, causing blackouts over the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed disruptions over all of North America at about 12:51pm ET.

The solar flare, classified as an X8.8, was the the strongest to come from this cycle which started in 2017 - NOAA said it was a radio blackout level 3 (R3) on a scale from one to five.

The stream launched from a sunspot that has been pummeling our planet for the last few days, which NOAA had said is the size of the spot that caused the worst solar storm in history.

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Staunch Biden defender and Congressman Dan Goldman (D-NY) admitted that he helped prepare Michael Cohen for his testimony against former President Donald Trump, another sign that the Republican’s supporters point to as evidence of a politically-motivated criminal trial.

Trump ally Alex Bruesewitz highlighted the clip of Goldman on MSNBC where he joined former Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and others to break down Cohen’s appearance in court Monday, which Goldman claimed only happened because of him.

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Archaeologists have discovered mysterious structures hidden below the surface near Egypt’s Great Pyramid that could be an unknown tomb built 4,500 years ago.

The team used ground-penetrating radar on Giza’s Western Cemetery, uncovering an L-shaped anomaly that appeared as an entranceway to a chamber below.

The burial ground holds the remains of King Khufu, who commissioned the iconic pyramid, his family members and high-ranking officials, suggesting another elite tomb could be hiding beneath the sands.

The L-shaped structure is up to six feet below the surface and filled with sand, which researchers speculated was intentionally done after it was constructed to block the entrance to the ‘chamber’ nearly 30 more feet below.

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This is NOT a good sign for Biden!

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On Monday, video streaming platform Rumble announced it is suing YouTube parent company Alphabet for over a billion dollars in damages.

The suit claims that “Google exploits significant conflicts of interest that stem from its multiple roles in this electronically traded marketplace,” and is therefore able “to pocket a supra-competitive portion of every advertising dollar that passes through the Ad Tech markets it controls, ad-revenue that rightly should have passed through to publishers like Rumble and its content creators.” Rumble added to the criticism that Alphabet was acting as a monopoly, referencing established antitrust precedence.

This will be the second lawsuit Rumble has carried out against Google in a handful of years, with the first being the 2021 lawsuit over Alphabet’s self-preference in search results. The earlier lawsuit also confronted Alphabet for its relationship with Android and preloaded bundles of their apps on Android devices.

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Alex Jones breaks down a disturbing report by Greg Reese detailing how the U.N is driving the migration flows with contingents of its own forces embedded in the mostly military-aged migrant caravans to activate civil unrest at a later date.

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Breitbart reports that the parent company of Mark Zuckerberg’s Facebook and Instagram social-media platforms is diving headfirst into the world of AI-powered wearables with its so-called Camerabuds project.

Camerabuds will combine “audio, video, and AI to form the ultimate surveillance capitalism data gathering tool,” Breitbart reports.

Android Authority reports that according to a report by the Information, Meta, the parent to Facebook and Instagram, is developing AI-powered earphones equipped with cameras, internally codenamed Camerabuds.

These earphones, Breitbart reports, “are designed to leverage AI capabilities for real-time object identification and foreign-language translation, potentially revolutionizing how users interact with their surroundings, and providing Meta with an incredible amount of data about the personal lives of wearers–and anyone they come in contact with.”

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Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times 

A vial of AstraZeneca vaccine is seen at a mass COVID-19 vaccination clinic in Calgary, Alta., on April 22, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

An American woman who suffered an injury from Astra Zeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine sued the company on May 13, alleging the company breached a contract by not paying for the medical care she requires to deal with the injury.

They left us no choice,” Brianne Dressen, a preschool teacher in Utah, told The Epoch Times in an email.

Ms. Dressen has paid tens of thousands of dollars to drugs to treat the nervous system disorder and other issues she’s experiencing, according to the complaint, filed in federal court in her home state.

Ms. Dressen chose to participate in AstraZeneca’s clinical trial in 2020 because she wanted to help the company develop its COVID-19 vaccine. The consent form she signed stated in part that AstraZeneca would “cover the costs of research injuries” and “pay the costs of medical treatment.”

With these reassurances should something go wrong, Bri signed the form, rolled up her sleeve, and let the drug company inject the experimental product into her arm. Her mind was at peace, as Bri believed she was doing the right thing for her country, her students, and her family,” the suit states.

Ms. Dressen soon started experiencing problems, including blurred vision, tinnitus, and vomiting. She later became extremely sensitive to light and suffered spikes in her heart rate.

Ms. Dressen went to see numerous doctors as she attempted to figure out what was wrong with her, and seek treatment.

In 2021, U.S. National Institutes of Health doctors diagnosed Ms. Dressen as having “post-vaccine neuropathy,” according to records reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Bills for the doctors’ visits and drugs they prescribed began piling up quickly. The immunoglobulin recommended by government doctors alone costs $9,909.82 a month.

Ms. Dressen and her husband, a chemist with the U.S. Army, kept AstraZeneca and Velocity, which ran the trial for the company, apprised of the accumulating costs, according to the suit.

The family messaged Velocity on Jan. 15, 2021, with the first set of payment records for treatment but received no response, according to the suit. “Checking on updates for this. . . . When may we expect payment?” Brian Dressen, Ms. Dressen’s husband, wrote several weeks later.

I am sorry you have not heard anything as of yet. Hopefully I get an answers [sic] soon. I will reach out again today,” a Velocity official responded.

No funds came to the family, forcing them to refinance their home.

“I’d like to know when we can expect the first payment on Brianne Dressen’s medical bills? Two months since submitting...“ Mr. Dressen wrote on March 18, 2021. The Velocity official said that she was ”forwarding on” the payment records.

“Hey this is Brianne Dressen. Can you advocate a bit for us here help us get a timeline for payment? I am still not doing well, we have had to hire for after school childcare. We really need this money,“ Ms. Dressen wrote on March 24, 2021. The official said the following day she would be escalating the issue and did not understand ”why it is taking so long.”

The back-and-forth continued for months with no reimbursement paid to Ms. Dressen

Claire's Observations:  If there was a contractual agreement to pay, if things when south with the vaccine trial, then Astra Zeneca is on the hook for this, pure and simple.  And even with a court case against them, they may still attempt to weasel out of it, because I cannot believe for one moment, that Brianne Dressen is the only one who developed massive problems after the trial.

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Joe Biden sat down for a one-on-one interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett to discuss his dumpster fire economy and 2024 strategy.

Biden thought he was going to have a softball interview with CNN but he completely crumbled when Erin Burnett fact-checked him to his face.

Burnett pointed out that the economy is the most important issue for voters.

“It’s also true, Mr. President that voters, by a wide margin, trust Trump more on the economy. They say that in polls,” Erin Burnett said.

She continued, “The cost of buying a home in the United States is double – if you look at what it was, the monthly costs before the pandemic.”

“Real income, when you account for inflation is actually down since you took office,” Burnett said. “Economic growth last week, far short of expectations.”

“Consumer confidence, maybe no surprise, is near a two-year a low. With less than 6 months until Election Day, are you worried that you are running out of time to turn that around?” Erin Burnett asked Biden.

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