By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

The Natural Equilibrium

G20 finance ministers, central bank governors and a handful of high-profile CEOs gathered in Asheville, North Carolina, yesterday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held court, telling allies that the only way out of heavy debt loads is growth, and that they needed to do more to confront China on its structural trade imbalances.

The latter point is particularly salient as Bessent prosecutes new restrictions against trade with Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. China has been Iran’s most important trading partner and the major market for cut-price Iranian oil that had given Chinese industry a cost advantage over buyers observing existing sanctions. Bessent is now telling allies that they will need to examine their terms of trade with China. The “or else” post-script to that message is left unsaid for now, but just ask a Canadian trade negotiator whether the US is developing sharper elbows on this point in recent times.

Even without US pressure, the realization seems to be dawning that Cardigan comparative advantage isn’t actually a utility-maximising strategy when not everyone plays by the rules. Ursula von der Leyen recently said that if trade negotiations do not materially reduce the EU’s record trade deficit with China, the former will need to solve the problem via regulatory tools, including its famed ‘trade bazooka’ anti-coercion instrument. There are no free traders in a foxhole.

There are other signs of deathbed conversions among hitherto free trade evangelists. Australia just imposed new tariffs on Chinese-manufactured train wheels to protect local industry, while an alliance of aluminum extruders in New Zealand are furiously lobbying the government to restrict imports of Chinese aluminum products that they say are being dumped into the local market at prices well below cost of production ever since other markets (the USA, EU and Australia) placed tariffs on those goods to protect their own industry.

Combined with the US’s systematic shutting down of China’s low-cost energy flows from Iran and Venezuela, the promulgation of barriers to entry for Chinese goods is starting to look like death by a thousand cuts for China’s economy. Bessent yesterday pointed to China’s trade surplus equivalent to 1% of global GDP, saying that China is trying to export its way out of a problem of weak domestic demand. Official PMI figures released yesterday showed a slight improvement in China’s manufacturing sector but further deterioration in non-manufacturing, and both sectors remained below the threshold between contraction and expansion.